石油化工行业周报：美国商业原油库存增长，油价延续震荡

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Maintain Accumulate" [6] Core Viewpoints - The international oil price has seen an increase, with Brent crude oil futures settling at approximately $76.05 per barrel, reflecting a weekly increase of about 4.09% and a year-to-date increase of around 0.2% [12][16] - The report indicates that despite the growth in U.S. crude oil production over the next two years, international oil prices are expected to remain at relatively high levels, benefiting upstream oil and gas companies [3][16] - In the oil service sector, the number of active drilling rigs in North America remained stable week-on-week but showed a significant year-on-year decline, while global drilling platform numbers increased in the third quarter, which is favorable for oil service companies [17] - The refining sector is experiencing mixed trends, with Singapore diesel price spreads decreasing by approximately $2.7 per barrel, while PX and naphtha spreads increased by about $1 per ton, indicating a potential for performance recovery in refining companies [19] - Polyester terminal prices show an increase in POY price spread, suggesting a recovery potential for long filament enterprises [23] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The CITIC oil and petrochemical sector rose by approximately 1.28% during the week of October 21-25, 2024, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by about 0.11 percentage points [10][11] - Leading stocks included Huajin Co., Daqing Huake, and Guangju Energy, while stocks like Zhongman Petroleum and China Petroleum saw declines [10][11] Upstream Oil and Gas Sector - The report highlights that U.S. crude oil production is projected to reach 13.2 million barrels per day in 2024 and nearly 13.5 million barrels per day in 2025, indicating a sustained growth trend [16] - The report suggests focusing on companies like China National Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil Corporation due to their efforts in increasing oil and gas reserves and transitioning to low-carbon operations [4][16] Oil Service Sector - The report recommends attention to companies such as CNOOC Services and Zhongman Petroleum, as the global drilling platform count has increased, enhancing business opportunities for oil service firms [4][17] Midstream Refining Sector - The report suggests monitoring companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical, as the refining sector is actively planning new capacities and accelerating new material project layouts [4][19] Polyester Terminal Sector - The report indicates a potential recovery for long filament companies like Xinfengming and Tongkun Co. due to improved supply-demand dynamics in the industry [4][23]