NCI(SH:601336) Tianfeng Securities·2024-11-01 01:01Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price indicating an expected return of over 20% within the next six months [4][11]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant turnaround in Q3 2024, achieving a net profit of 9.6 billion yuan, compared to a loss of 440 million yuan in the same period last year, resulting in a year-to-date net profit of 20.68 billion yuan, up 117% year-on-year [1]. - The investment performance was bolstered by strong stock and bond markets, leading to a substantial improvement in investment returns, with an annualized total investment return rate of 6.8%, up 4.5 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The company experienced a notable increase in new business value, which grew by 79.2% year-on-year, indicating a high-quality development in the liability side [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 9.6 billion yuan, a significant recovery from a loss of 440 million yuan in Q3 2023 [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, the net profit reached 20.68 billion yuan, reflecting a 117% increase compared to the same period last year [1]. - The total investment income, including interest and fair value changes, amounted to 70.63 billion yuan, a 233.5% increase year-on-year [1]. Premium Income and New Business Value - The first-year premium income for long-term insurance reached 24.75 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, up 12.3% year-on-year [2]. - The new business value saw a remarkable growth of 79.2% year-on-year, significantly outpacing the premium growth rate [2]. Distribution Channels - The individual insurance channel reported a first-year premium income of 11.98 billion yuan, an increase of 18.8% year-on-year, with improved productivity from the sales force [3]. - The bank insurance channel also showed positive growth, with a first-year premium income of 12.66 billion yuan, up 6.3% year-on-year, marking a recovery from a decline in the previous year [3]. Investment Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from further upward movements in equity markets, which could enhance investment returns [3]. - The current valuation stands at 0.6x PEV, indicating potential for valuation recovery [3].