EBSCN·2024-11-01 01:15Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 154.75 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 17.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.27 billion yuan, up 238.6% year-on-year [1] - The copper segment is the main source of profit, contributing 72% of the mining business's gross profit [2] - The company expects copper production in 2024 to exceed the guidance provided in the 2023 annual report, with a target of 520,000 to 570,000 tons [2][3] - The company has initiated expansion projects at TFM and KFM, with promising exploration results [3] - The report is optimistic about copper prices continuing to rise, particularly from Q4 2024 onwards due to tightening supply [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 51.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.5% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 8.4% [1] - The gross profit for the mining segment was 22.34 billion yuan, with the copper segment contributing 16.08 billion yuan, accounting for 57.7% of the company's total gross profit [2] Production Outlook - The company produced 476,000 tons of copper in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 78.2% [2] - The company has set a five-year plan aiming for an annual copper production of 800,000 to 1 million tons by 2028 [3] Industry Perspective - The report anticipates a tightening supply of copper and scrap copper starting in the second half of 2024, which is expected to positively impact copper prices [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits of 11.90 billion yuan, 15.63 billion yuan, and 16.67 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 14, 11, and 10 times [3]