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2024年10月PMI数据点评：“银十”热度不减，政策效应持续释放
Southwest Securities·2024-11-01 01:33

Manufacturing PMI Insights - The manufacturing PMI for October 2024 increased by 0.3 percentage points to 50.1%, marking a return to the expansion zone after five months of contraction, exceeding market expectations[2] - The new orders index rose to 50.0%, up 0.1 percentage points, indicating a recovery in demand after five months of decline[3] - The production index increased by 0.8 percentage points to 52.0%, reflecting two consecutive months of expansion driven by improved demand[3] Demand and Supply Dynamics - External demand continues to decline, with the new export orders index at 47.3%, down 0.2 percentage points, while the import index rose to 47.0%, up 0.9 percentage points[4] - The proportion of enterprises reporting insufficient demand remains above 60%, particularly affecting small and medium-sized enterprises[8] - The purchasing volume index increased by 1.7 percentage points to 49.3%, but remains below the critical line for six consecutive months[12] Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose to 50.2%, up 0.2 percentage points, with the service sector index at 50.1%, also reflecting a 0.2 percentage point increase[15] - The construction sector maintained expansion with a business activity index of 50.4%, despite a slight decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month[16] - The basic raw materials sector showed signs of recovery, with its PMI rising by 2.7 percentage points to 49.3%[6] Policy Impact and Future Outlook - A series of incremental policies are expected to support manufacturing sentiment, despite potential marginal declines in the manufacturing sector as it enters the traditional off-season[3] - The People's Bank of China has lowered the LPR by 25 basis points to 3.1% for one-year loans and to 3.6% for five-year loans, aiming to stimulate economic activity[3] - The issuance of special bonds has accelerated, with approximately 2.97 billion yuan issued in October, contributing to infrastructure investment and supporting the real estate market[17]