不止出口：关税疑云下，今年产能出海的细分个股走势有何规律？

Core Insights - The report highlights the trend of companies expanding production capacity overseas, particularly in response to potential tariff pressures from the upcoming U.S. elections, with a focus on identifying stocks that have established production bases abroad [1][5][14]. - A total of 299 listed companies have set up overseas production bases, with 62 in the U.S., 72 in Mexico, and 215 in Southeast Asia, indicating a significant shift in production strategies [14][15]. - The report emphasizes that companies in the photovoltaic and battery sectors, as well as electronics, have shown substantial excess returns compared to their domestic counterparts, particularly those with production facilities in the U.S. and Southeast Asia [1][5][18]. Group 1: Selection Criteria for Overseas Production Companies - The report outlines two primary methods for identifying companies with overseas production bases: examining annual reports for "construction details" and searching company announcements for relevant information [6][12]. - Specific examples include Guoxuan High-Tech and Sanhua Intelligent Control, which have disclosed their overseas projects in their annual reports [7][14]. - The report notes that companies may also acquire overseas production capabilities through mergers and acquisitions, which could lead to some important information being overlooked if only relying on construction details [11][12]. Group 2: Characteristics and Trends of Overseas Production Stocks - The report identifies that companies with overseas production facilities have generally outperformed those without, particularly in the renewable energy sector, where stocks have shown strong excess returns [1][5][18]. - A statistical analysis reveals that companies in the automotive parts and battery industries have been the most active in establishing production bases in the U.S., driven by demand from Tesla and the local photovoltaic market [14][15]. - The report also highlights that the automotive and electronics sectors are leading in establishing production in Mexico, benefiting from lower production costs and geographical proximity to the U.S. market [15][18]. Group 3: Statistical Insights on Excess Returns - The report presents data showing that companies with production facilities in the U.S. have significantly higher average revenue compared to those in Southeast Asia and Mexico, indicating a correlation between overseas production and financial performance [19][21]. - The automotive parts industry has the highest number of companies establishing production in the U.S., with 9 companies, while the battery sector has 6, reflecting a strategic response to market demands [19][20]. - The report emphasizes the importance of analyzing the performance of stocks based on their overseas production locations, as this can reveal insights into market trends and investment opportunities [20].