中泰证券：【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】固收肖雨：如果供给放量，11月资金面怎么看？-——11月流动性展望-20241101

Overview - The report discusses the liquidity outlook for November, focusing on the potential impact of increased government bond supply on the financial market [2]. Group 1: Key Findings - In October, the financial market exhibited four characteristics: a low central price for funds, persistent segmentation, rapid government bond issuance, and high volatility in certificate of deposit (CD) issuance rates [2]. - The net financing for government bonds in November and December is projected to be 850 billion and 490 billion respectively, with local government bonds potentially adding significant supply pressure [2]. - The report anticipates a seasonal increase in fiscal deposits of 500 to 1,000 billion in November, with comparisons to previous years indicating a similar trend in government bond financing [2]. Group 2: Scenarios and Projections - Two scenarios for local government bond issuance are considered: one with an additional 1 trillion and another with 2 trillion, leading to net financing estimates of 1.6 trillion and 2.1 trillion respectively for November and December [2]. - The report predicts a funding gap of 3,507 billion in October and 12,291 billion in November under the assumption of 2 trillion in local bond issuance, with the central bank expected to maintain a supportive monetary policy stance [2]. - The excess reserve ratio is expected to decrease to 1.3% in November, indicating potential liquidity tightening despite the anticipated government bond issuance [2].