LFX(SH:600612)2024-11-01 01:45Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company's Q3 revenue growth is under pressure, with a significant decline in terminal sales. The report highlights that the gold jewelry consumption remains weak due to high gold prices and seasonal factors, leading to a decrease in sales volume [4]. - The report notes that the company's gross margin has declined, impacting profit performance, primarily due to an increase in the sales proportion of investment gold bars and adjustments in wholesale pricing [4]. - The company is actively innovating and expanding its brand influence through collaborations, such as the partnership with Bandai Namco to launch a limited edition gold Gundam series, which has received positive market feedback [4]. - The report projects a recovery in consumer sentiment as the peak sales season for gold jewelry approaches, which may help to alleviate the current decline in terminal sales [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 52,582 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.3%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1,776 million yuan, down 9.6% year-on-year [5]. - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 8.56%, showing a slight increase of 0.44 percentage points year-on-year, while Q3 gross margin was 6.52%, down 0.98 percentage points year-on-year [4][5]. - The report forecasts net profits for 2024-2026 to be 2,058 million yuan, 2,261 million yuan, and 2,440 million yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 13, 12, and 11 [4]. Market Context - The report indicates that gold jewelry consumption in China for Q1-Q3 2024 reached 400 tons, a decrease of 27.53% year-on-year, while gold bars and coins consumption increased by 27.14% to 283 tons [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the upcoming peak sales season for gold jewelry, which may help to improve terminal sales and reduce the current decline in consumer demand [4].