华阳股份：产销恢复&成本下降，资源接续成长可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Huayang Co., Ltd. (600348.SH) [6][3] Core Views - The company has shown signs of recovery in production and sales, with a decrease in costs, indicating potential for continued growth in resource acquisition [3][2] - The company’s Q3 2024 performance showed a slight improvement in revenue and a significant decrease in net profit compared to the previous year, attributed to stable coal prices and increased sales volume [1][2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 186.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.09%, and a net profit of 18.19 billion yuan. In Q3 2024, the main revenue was 64.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.63%, with a net profit of 5.20 billion yuan, down 58.72% year-on-year but up 20.51% quarter-on-quarter [1][2] - The coal production for Q1-3 2024 was 28.74 million tons, down 17.6% year-on-year, while coal sales were 26.58 million tons, down 15.9% year-on-year. In Q3 2024, production was 10.08 million tons, down 9.3% year-on-year, and sales were 9.48 million tons, down 5.5% year-on-year but up 7.5% quarter-on-quarter [2][3] Pricing and Cost Analysis - The average selling price of coal for Q1-3 2024 was 564 yuan/ton, down 7.0% year-on-year, while the cost was 342 yuan/ton, up 12.2% year-on-year. The gross profit per ton was 223 yuan, down 26.4% year-on-year. In Q3 2024, the selling price was 550 yuan/ton, down 2.5% year-on-year, and the cost was 319 yuan/ton, up 21.1% year-on-year, leading to a gross profit of 230 yuan/ton, down 23.2% year-on-year but up 9.6% quarter-on-quarter [2][3] Resource Acquisition and Capacity Expansion - The company actively participated in mineral rights auctions, successfully acquiring coal exploration rights in Shanxi Province for 6.3 billion tons of coal resources, enhancing its resource reserves and competitive edge [3][2] - The company is accelerating the construction of its Qiyuan and Bolin mines, with Qiyuan expected to enter joint trial operation in 2024 and Bolin by the end of 2025, each with a production capacity of 5 million tons per year [3][2] Investment Forecast - The report adjusts the earnings forecast for the company, estimating net profits of 2.3 billion yuan, 4.1 billion yuan, and 4.7 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11.8X, 6.7X, and 5.9X [3][5]