VANKE(000002) GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2024-11-01 01:48Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][5]. Core Views - The company experienced a net loss of 17.9 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a significant decline from a net profit of 13.6 billion yuan in the same period last year, with total revenue of 219.89 billion yuan, down 24.25% year-on-year [1][4]. - Despite the challenging development fundamentals, there are positive signals since the end of September, with a notable increase in market activity following favorable policy changes [2][3]. - The company has implemented multiple measures to maintain financial stability, including accelerating cash collection and optimizing existing assets [3]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a total sales area of 13.3 million square meters, down 26.8% year-on-year, with sales revenue of 181.2 billion yuan, down 35.4% year-on-year [2]. - The gross profit margin for the development business was 8.3%, a decrease of 10.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the overall gross profit margin for the group was 9.5%, down 8.1 percentage points [2]. - The company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of 330 million yuan in Q3, continuing to remain positive since Q2 [3]. Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected at 318.96 billion yuan, 310.43 billion yuan, and 308.26 billion yuan respectively, with expected net profits of -13.9 billion yuan, 0.23 billion yuan, and 1.29 billion yuan [4]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in profitability, with earnings per share (EPS) expected to improve from -1.17 yuan in 2024 to 0.11 yuan in 2026 [4]. Market Position - The company remains the third-largest in the industry by sales scale, despite the downward pressure in the sector [4].