CSICL(601989) 申万宏源·2024-11-01 02:10Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Shipbuilding Industry Company Limited (601989) [4][5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 35.27 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 16.35%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 934 million yuan, turning from negative to positive [4][5] - The company is experiencing a gradual delivery of high-priced orders, with a projected decrease in steel prices compared to the previous year, which is expected to improve both revenue and cost [4][5] - The company plans to acquire additional shipbuilding capacity, which is anticipated to increase its delivery volume and revenue in the coming years [4][5] - The shipbuilding and shipping industry is currently in an upward phase, with significant improvements in order backlogs and pricing indices [4][5] - The profit forecast for 2024-2026 has been adjusted downward, with expected net profits of 1.71 billion, 4.72 billion, and 9.43 billion yuan respectively [4][5] Summary by Sections Market Data - Closing price: 5.15 yuan - Market capitalization: 117,430 million yuan - Price-to-book ratio: 1.4 - Dividend yield: 0.19 [2][3] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024E is projected at 55.53 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 18.9% [5] - Net profit for 2024E is expected to be 1.71 billion yuan, with a significant increase of 175.5% compared to 2023 [5] - Gross margin is projected to improve to 11.9% in 2024E [5] Operational Insights - The company delivered 17 vessels in Q3 2024, with expectations to deliver 16 more in Q4 2024 [4] - The average steel price for delivered orders in 2024 and 2025 is expected to decrease by 20% and 6% respectively [4] - The company’s order backlog is projected to be around 217 billion yuan, reflecting a 35% increase since the beginning of 2024 [4]