TKGF(601233) 申万宏源·2024-11-01 02:11Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its performance relative to the market [6][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 76.05 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 23.2%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.01 billion yuan, up 11.4% year-on-year [6][7]. - In Q3 2024, the company experienced a decline in net profit to -0.06 billion yuan, a significant drop of 112.1% quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to inventory losses [6][7]. - The report highlights an increase in sales volume for polyester filament in Q3, driven by a decrease in raw material prices, although the overall demand remains weak [6][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 27.83 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.7%, but faced a net loss of 0.06 billion yuan [6][7]. - The gross margin for Q3 was 3.3%, down 3.0 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to inventory devaluation [6][7]. - The company’s financial expenses increased by 37.3% year-on-year due to rising interest costs [6][7]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the polyester filament sales volume increased in Q3, with POY, FDY, and DTY sales reaching 2.69 million, 0.61 million, and 0.29 million tons respectively, showing quarter-on-quarter increases [6][7]. - The average price spreads for POY, FDY, and DTY improved in Q3, reflecting a favorable pricing environment despite raw material price declines [6][7]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a tightening supply-demand balance for polyester filament, which could lead to improved profitability in the future [6][7]. - The company’s earnings forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted downward due to weaker-than-expected seasonal profits and inventory devaluation impacts [6][7].