Workflow
德邦股份:需求承压致业绩同比下滑,静待行业景气修复

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 28.296 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.21%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 517 million yuan, up 9.71% year-on-year. However, Q3 revenue was 9.85 billion yuan, showing a slight increase of 1.03% year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 19.4% [1][3] - The company is experiencing pressure on demand, leading to a decline in unit revenue. The core business of express delivery volume increased by approximately 9.37% year-on-year, but the average price per kilogram fell by about 1.3% due to adjustments in pricing strategy and changes in product structure [1][3] - The company is focusing on cost control, with a decrease in expense ratio to approximately 5.2%, down 0.98 percentage points year-on-year. This improvement is attributed to process optimization and organizational flattening [4][3] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company is expected to achieve a net profit of 812.86 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.00%. The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is 0.79 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18.12 [3][6] - The company's revenue is forecasted to grow from 36.28 billion yuan in 2023 to 38.64 billion yuan in 2024, representing a growth rate of 6.52% [6][3] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was approximately 7.42%, a decrease of 0.71 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased transportation costs and changes in business structure [3][4]