OKE(SH:688308) Soochow Securities·2024-11-01 02:30Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has experienced rapid revenue growth, with a year-on-year increase of 11.2% in revenue for the first three quarters of 2024, reaching 895 million yuan, while net profit has decreased by 43.7% to 90 million yuan [2] - The decline in profit is attributed to increased unit costs due to underutilized production capacity of hard tools and rising period expenses [2][3] - The company is expected to see a recovery in performance in 2025 as new products are launched and the manufacturing sector gradually recovers [2] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2022 was 1,055 million yuan, with a slight decline to 1,026 million yuan in 2023, and projected growth to 1,205 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.39% [1][5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased from 242.08 million yuan in 2022 to 166 million yuan in 2023, with a forecast of 121.94 million yuan for 2024, indicating a significant decline of 26.55% [1][5] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 0.77 yuan per share in 2024, with a P/E ratio of 24.95 based on the current price [1][5] Cost and Expense Analysis - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 25.83%, down by 6.71 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased unit costs from underutilized production capacity [3] - The net profit margin for the same period was 10.00%, a decrease of 9.83 percentage points year-on-year, driven by the decline in gross margin and rising expense ratios [3] - The period expense ratio increased to 14.67%, up by 2.89 percentage points year-on-year, with significant increases in R&D expenses due to ongoing investments in new product development [3] Market Expansion and Project Wins - The company has successfully won a significant order for the "New Morning Power BMW Crankshaft Tool Management Service Project," showcasing its comprehensive solution capabilities [4] - The company has accelerated its overseas market expansion, achieving 140 million yuan in overseas sales, with CNC tool exports accounting for 1.1 billion yuan, representing 19.27% of total CNC tool revenue [4]