国内观察：2024年10月PMI—开启基本面验证序幕

Group 1: PMI Data Overview - In October, the manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1%, up from 49.8% in September, indicating a seasonal rebound[2] - The non-manufacturing PMI increased to 50.2%, slightly above the previous value of 50.0%[2] - The October manufacturing PMI is above the five-year average of 49.7%[2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The production index rose to 52.0%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points month-on-month[3] - The new orders index remained at 50.0%, indicating stability, while the new export orders index fell to 47.3%, the lowest since February[3] - The expected business activity index improved to 54.0%, reflecting enhanced corporate confidence due to policy measures[3] Group 3: Price Indices and Sector Performance - The main raw material purchase price index increased by 8.3 percentage points to 53.4%, while the factory price index slightly fell to 49.9%[4] - The service sector business activity index rose to 50.1%, driven by tourism-related activities during the National Day holiday[4] - The construction industry business activity index was at 50.4%, with civil engineering activities exceeding 55.0%[4] Group 4: Challenges and Risks - Small enterprises continue to struggle, with a PMI of 47.5%, indicating ongoing operational pressures[5] - The real estate sector's business activity index remains below the threshold, highlighting sector-specific challenges[5] - Risks include potential declines in overseas demand and the possibility that growth stabilization policies may not meet expectations[5]