BYD(01211) 交银国际·2024-11-01 02:35Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained with a target price of HKD 379.22, implying a 28.5% upside from the current price of HKD 295.00 [1][2][6] Core Views - 3Q24 gross margin exceeded expectations at 21.9%, up 3.2 percentage points QoQ, driven by improved auto business margin due to lower lithium carbonate prices, economies of scale, and DMI 5.0 model ramp-up [1] - 3Q24 net profit rose 11.5% YoY and 28.1% QoQ to RMB 11.6 billion, with revenue up 24.0% YoY and 14.2% QoQ to RMB 201.1 billion [1] - Operating expenses surged QoQ, with sales/management/R&D expenses up 27.8%/20.1%/52.0% respectively, hitting record highs due to increased spending on premium models and smart features [1] - 4Q24 sales expected to rise to 1.3-1.5 million units (vs 1.13 million in 3Q24) on seasonal strength and DMI 5.0 model ramp-up, with further margin improvement potential from economies of scale [2] - Premium models and exports yet to contribute meaningfully, with Denza Z9 GT starting deliveries in September and Fangchengbao's Leopard 8 not yet launched [2] - Overseas sales impacted by EU tariffs in 3Q24, but new market entries (Vietnam, Pakistan, Tunisia) and upcoming overseas plant production expected to boost export volumes [2] Financial Forecasts - 2024-26E net profit forecasts raised by 14%/19.4%/23.3% to reflect higher sales volume and margin improvement from premium models and exports [2] - 2024E revenue forecast at RMB 764.8 billion (+27.0% YoY), with net profit of RMB 41.1 billion (+36.9% YoY) [3] - 2025E revenue forecast at RMB 905.4 billion (+18.4% YoY), with net profit of RMB 52.4 billion (+27.4% YoY) [3] - 2026E revenue forecast at RMB 1,056.9 billion (+16.7% YoY), with net profit of RMB 64.5 billion (+23.1% YoY) [3] - Gross margin expected to improve from 20.5% in 2024E to 21.4% in 2026E, with net margin rising from 5.4% to 6.1% over the same period [8] Industry Context - BYD maintains strong position in sub-RMB 200k passenger vehicle market with vertical supply chain and high-margin advantages [2] - Increasing focus on premium models (Denza, Fangchengbao) and smart features through partnerships (e.g., Huawei) [2] - Overseas expansion ongoing with new market entries and local production, though near-term headwinds from EU tariffs [2]