COSCO SHIP HOLD(601919) 国金证券·2024-11-01 02:47Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for Q1-Q3 2024, with revenue reaching 174.74 billion RMB, a year-on-year growth of 29.8%, and net profit of 38.12 billion RMB, up 72.7% [1] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 73.51 billion RMB, a 72% increase year-on-year, and net profit of 21.25 billion RMB, reflecting a remarkable growth of 285.7% [1] - The increase in revenue is attributed to multiple factors including the peak season in the Europe and America mainline market, growth in emerging markets, and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea region [1] - The average CCFI composite index for Q1-Q3 2024 was 1573.5, up 63% year-on-year, with Q3's average index at 1990.8, a 127% increase [1] - The company’s gross margin improved to 59.2% in Q3 2024, an increase of 28.6 percentage points year-on-year, driven by rising export freight rates [1] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company reported total revenue of 1747.4 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 29.8% and a net profit of 381.2 billion RMB, up 72.7% [1] - Q3 2024 saw a revenue of 735.1 billion RMB, a 72% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 212.5 billion RMB, reflecting a 285.7% growth [1] Operational Analysis - The company’s container shipping volume in Q3 2024 was 6.58 million TEU, an 8.6% increase year-on-year, with estimated revenue per container on foreign trade routes at 1443.8 USD/TEU, a 67.2% increase [1] - The company’s gross margin for Q3 2024 was 59.2%, up 28.6 percentage points year-on-year, while the expense ratio decreased slightly to 2.36% [1] Dividend and Fleet Optimization - The company proposed a mid-term dividend of 0.52 RMB per share, with a total cash dividend of approximately 8.3 billion RMB, representing 49.2% of its net profit for the first half of 2024 [1] - The fleet structure continues to be optimized, with the delivery of five energy-efficient vessels and three ultra-large vessels, maintaining the company’s position in the industry [1] Profit Forecast and Rating Adjustment - The profit forecast for 2024-2026 has been revised upwards to 49.2 billion RMB, 23.2 billion RMB, and 20.4 billion RMB respectively, from previous estimates of 45.2 billion RMB, 19.9 billion RMB, and 17.2 billion RMB [1]