SICHUAN HEXIE SHUANGMA CO.(000935) 国泰君安·2024-11-01 02:49Investment Rating - Maintains an "Overweight" rating with a target price of 23.70 yuan, corresponding to a 32x P/E for 2024 [3][5] Core Views - The company's investment business turned negative, leading to a significant decline in performance, with adjusted revenue and net profit for 2024Q3 dropping by 39% and 63% year-over-year, respectively [3] - The acquisition of Shenzhen Jianyuan aims to capture growth opportunities in the biopharmaceutical industry, with Shenzhen Jianyuan's operating profit reaching 89.99 million yuan in 2023 and 82.68 million yuan in 2024H1, showing rapid growth [3] - The completion of the new fund's fundraising is expected to increase management fee income, with the Harmony Green Industry Fund raising 10.5 billion yuan in July 2024 [3] - Improved capital market conditions are favorable for the company's project exits, particularly in the areas of new industrialization and artificial intelligence [3] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2022A, 2023A, 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is projected at 1,220 million yuan, 1,219 million yuan, 1,193 million yuan, 2,074 million yuan, and 2,761 million yuan, respectively, with significant growth expected in 2025E and 2026E [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2022A, 2023A, 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is projected at 825 million yuan, 985 million yuan, 565 million yuan, 1,206 million yuan, and 1,529 million yuan, respectively, with a notable decline in 2024E followed by strong recovery in 2025E and 2026E [1] - EPS for 2022A, 2023A, 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is projected at 1.08 yuan, 1.29 yuan, 0.74 yuan, 1.58 yuan, and 2.00 yuan, respectively [1] - ROE for 2022A, 2023A, 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is projected at 12.7%, 13.2%, 7.2%, 13.8%, and 15.5%, respectively [1] Business Performance - Investment income turned negative in 2024Q3, with a loss of 37 million yuan compared to a profit of 493 million yuan in the same period last year, primarily due to fair value changes in financial assets [3] - Management fee income from private equity business increased by 81% year-over-year in 2024H1, reaching 220 million yuan, driven by the successful fundraising of the Harmony Green Industry Fund [3] - Building materials business revenue declined by 41% year-over-year in 2024H1, reaching 261 million yuan, due to weak market conditions in the cement and aggregate sectors [3] Strategic Moves - The company acquired 92% of Shenzhen Jianyuan for 1.596 billion yuan, aiming to strengthen its position in the biopharmaceutical sector [3] - The Harmony Green Industry Fund, with a total commitment of 10.5 billion yuan, is expected to enhance management fee income and focus on innovative technology enterprises [3] Market Performance - The stock price has shown significant growth over the past year, with a 52-week range of 10.20-19.98 yuan and a current price of 18.49 yuan [6] - The company's market capitalization stands at 13.956 billion yuan, with a total share capital of 763 million shares [6]