奇安信2024年三季报点评：聚焦现金流质量提升，业务优势强化在途

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company and raises the target price to 45.37 CNY, reflecting an increase of 11.96% from the previous target price of 33.41 CNY [4][5]. Core Insights - The company's overall performance aligns with market expectations, with a significant increase in operating cash flow, indicating potential for future earnings to exceed expectations due to strategic positioning in data security and increased investment from China Electronics [3][4]. - The company has faced short-term revenue pressure, with a reported revenue of 2.711 billion CNY for the first three quarters, a decrease of 26.47% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -1.176 billion CNY, a reduction in losses by 47 million CNY [4][5]. - The company is focusing on enhancing cash flow quality and effectively controlling expenses, with a notable improvement in operating cash flow net amounting to -1.370 billion CNY, an increase of 457 million CNY year-on-year [4][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to have net profits attributable to shareholders of 148 million CNY, 296 million CNY, and 456 million CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.22 CNY, 0.43 CNY, and 0.67 CNY [4][15]. - The report anticipates a revenue growth rate of 7%, 8%, and 10% for the network security product business from 2024 to 2026, with gross margins of 78%, 79%, and 79% [13]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic network security sector, with a projected 2025 PE ratio of 105, leading to a reasonable valuation of 310.88 billion CNY [15][16]. 2. Business Segments - The network security product business includes high-growth potential products such as AI+ security and managed services, with competitive advantages in terminal security and threat detection [13]. - The company is recognized as a leading information security service provider, with plans to expand its service capabilities and maintain its competitive edge in the data security service sector [14]. - The hardware and other business segment is expected to grow at a slower pace, with projected growth rates of 5%, 8%, and 10% from 2024 to 2026 [14].