明泰铝业：铝价波动影响业绩，产销量创新高

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][19]. Core Views - The company's revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 reached 23.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.6%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.41 billion yuan, also up by 21.6% [1][7]. - In Q3 2024, the company experienced a revenue of 8.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.4%, but a net profit decrease of 4.6% year-on-year [2][7]. - The decline in Q3 performance was primarily due to falling aluminum prices and foreign exchange losses, with the average price of aluminum ingots at 19,550 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan/ton from the previous quarter [2][7]. - The company achieved record high sales volumes for aluminum plates and foils, with Q3 sales reaching 379,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons year-on-year [2][8]. - The company has strong cost control capabilities, allowing it to maintain high profitability despite industry pressures [3][16]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated at 32.36 billion yuan, 34.53 billion yuan, and 37.76 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 22.4%, 6.7%, and 9.3% [3][16]. - The net profit forecasts for the same years are 1.90 billion yuan, 2.01 billion yuan, and 2.20 billion yuan, with growth rates of 41.3%, 5.7%, and 9.1% [3][16]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.53 yuan, 1.62 yuan, and 1.77 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [3][16].