TKGF(601233) 国联证券·2024-11-01 03:01Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tongkun Co., Ltd. is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 76.049 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, an increase of 23.17% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.007 billion yuan, up 11.41% year-on-year. However, in Q3 2024, the company faced a net loss of 59 million yuan, a decrease of 107.34% year-on-year [2][6] - The polyester segment's performance was under pressure, leading to a significant decline in profits. Excluding the contribution from Zhejiang Petrochemical, the net loss in Q3 2024 was 183 million yuan, down 148.87% year-on-year [7] - The demand for polyester filament is showing signs of recovery, with a year-on-year increase in consumption volume of 5.53% in Q3 2024 [7] - Recent government policies aimed at boosting real estate and consumption are expected to further improve demand for polyester filament [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 27.834 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.03% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.70%. The net profit for the same period was a loss of 590 million yuan, down 112.07% quarter-on-quarter [2][6] - The company holds a 20% stake in Zhejiang Petrochemical, which reported a net profit of 620 million yuan in Q3 2024, a decrease of 70.74% year-on-year [7] Market Outlook - The average PTA-crude oil price spread in Q3 2024 was 315 yuan/ton, remaining stable, but the PTA price spread is still at a low level, impacting the company's performance [7] - If the demand for end-use chemical products recovers and projects at Zhejiang Petrochemical are fully operational, it is expected to enhance investment returns [7] Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.6 billion yuan, 3.6 billion yuan, and 5.2 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.65 yuan, 1.49 yuan, and 2.14 yuan [8]