招商公路:货车流量受宏观经济扰动,业绩略低于预期

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company reported a Q3 2024 revenue of 3.093 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.9%, but the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 6.43% [4]. - Truck traffic has been affected by macroeconomic disturbances, leading to performance slightly below expectations. In Q3 2024, the average weekly truck traffic on national highways was approximately 53.427 million vehicles, a decline of about 1.66% compared to the same period in 2023 [4][5]. - The company's costs and expenses are relatively high in the short term but are expected to improve in the future. For the first nine months of 2024, costs reached 5.631 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 42%, exceeding revenue growth [5]. - The company is expected to benefit from policy changes regarding the duration of operating toll roads, which may enhance its growth prospects [5]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company’s total revenue for 2024 is projected to be 11.96 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 22.9% [7]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is estimated at 7.04 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 4.0% [7]. - The earnings per share for 2024 is forecasted to be 1.03 yuan, with a projected PE ratio of 12 [7].