3月26日，300红利低波ETF嘉实（515300）开盘跌0.30%，报1.335元。300红利低波ETF嘉实（515300） 重仓股方面，中国神华开盘跌0.25%，格力电器涨0.08%，中国石油涨0.00%，中国石化跌0.51%，双汇 发展涨1.17%，中国海油跌0.02%，大秦铁路跌0.19%，中国建筑跌0.20%，招商公路跌0.10%，美的集团 涨0.12%。 300红利低波ETF嘉实（515300）业绩比较基准为沪深300红利低波动指数收益率，管理人为嘉实基金管 理有限公司，基金经理为王紫菡，成立（2019-08-08）以来回报为72.46%，近一个月回报为2.72%。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本文 出现的信息均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建议。如有出入请以实际公告为准。如有疑问，请联系 biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本文 出现的信息均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建议。如有出入请以实际公告为准。如有疑问，请联系 biz@staff.sina.c ...

交通运输 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2026 年 3 月 22 日 强于大市 交通运输行业周报 霍尔木兹通航受阻下 VLCC 转向延布红海通 道，短期替代方案情景催生投资机会值得关注 航运方面，霍尔木兹通航受阻下 VLCC 转向延布红海通道，西非航线补位对冲 外运缺口。航空货运方面，中东局势扰动外溢导致亚欧空运运力仍偏紧且附加 费承压，国泰货运取消迪拜与利雅得货班至 3 月 31 日并增投欧洲运力。交通新 业态方面，英伟达宣布扩大与 Uber、Lyft 合作并开源推理 VLA 模型 Alpamayo 1，Robotaxi 计划于 2027 年起在美多城落地。低空经济方面，沃飞长空在成都 举办供应链大会集结百余家伙伴，发布百亿机遇清单并获工行 100 亿元授信支 持。国内首个"路空一体"汽车试验场投运，低空飞行器测试验证基础设施迈 出关键一步。 核心观点 ①霍尔木兹通航受阻下 VLCC 转向延布红海通道，西非航线补位对冲外运缺 口。中东局势升级致霍尔木兹通航实质受阻，亿海蓝 AIS 监测显示中资 VLCC 在延布港集结借沙特东西管道开辟绕行通道，并同步增配西非供给以对冲波斯 湾外运中断风险。②中东局势扰动 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping industry, particularly emphasizing the value of Chinese tanker assets as a safe haven [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in Aframax tanker rates, which surged by 54% to $188,000 per day, driven by geopolitical tensions and changes in trade routes [2]. - The report recommends several companies, including China Merchants Energy Shipping, COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation, and China Merchants South China Shipping, as key players to watch in the sector [2]. - The report notes that the global oil trade routes are being reassessed, with the price at Yanbu port reaching $287,000 per day, indicating strong demand and potential for further growth [2]. Summary by Sections Shipping Market Performance - The transportation index fell by 2.65%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.46 percentage points, with the shipping sector showing the largest gain of 1.21% among sub-sectors [4]. - The Baltic Dry Index reported a slight decrease of 0.05%, while the crude oil tanker index increased by 4.22% [4]. Oil Transportation - The report indicates that the average VLCC rate increased by 22% week-on-week, reaching $230,208 per day, with specific routes like the Middle East to China remaining stable at $410,872 per day [2]. - The report emphasizes the potential for increased volumes in the Atlantic market due to significant price differentials and strategic oil reserve releases [2]. Product Oil Transportation - The LR2-TC1 rate rose by 37% to $118,991 per day, driven by geopolitical factors affecting Middle Eastern exports [2]. - The report notes a 20% increase in MR average rates, reflecting a recovery in the Atlantic market [2]. Dry Bulk Shipping - The report mentions that the BDI recorded a slight decrease, but larger vessels like Capesize saw a 3.1% increase in rates, indicating resilience in the market [2]. - The report highlights increased coal exports from Indonesia and Australia, supporting Panamax rates [2]. Air Transportation - The report discusses the ongoing challenges in the aircraft manufacturing supply chain and the aging fleet, which is expected to constrain supply [2]. - Despite short-term pressures from rising oil prices, the long-term outlook for the air transport sector remains positive [2]. Express Delivery - The report anticipates a recovery in delivery fees due to new policies, benefiting leading companies like ZTO Express and YTO Express [2]. - The report highlights the growth potential of J&T Express in Southeast Asia [2]. Rail and Road Transportation - The report notes resilience in rail freight volumes and highway truck traffic, with significant week-on-week increases reported [2]. - It suggests that traditional high-dividend investment themes and potential value management catalysts in the highway sector are worth monitoring [2].

母通让泰2026春李荣略会 通行需求具有韧性, 政策优化箭在骇 交通运输行业2026年投资策略之【高速公路行业】 2026/03 / 22/ 行业评级: 增持 姓名：岳鑫 (分析师) 邮箱:yuexin@gtht.com 电话:0755-23976758 证书编号: S0880514030006 姓名:陈亦凡 (研究助理) 邮箱: chenyifan2@gtht.com 电话:0755-23976666 证书编号: S0880124070025 投资要点 (行业评级:增持) 玉 每 海 通 中 2026 李 等 路 。 上 ， 上 ， 上 ， 上 ， 上 ， 上 ， 上 ， 上 ， 上 ， 上 ， 上 ， 。 上 ， 。 。 上 ， 。 。 上 ， 01 通行需求具有韧性，分红稳定股息确定 02 条例修订共识广泛，政策优化箭在弦上 各地先行先试改扩建，五大政策趋势需重视 策略: 维持高速公路"增持"评级 高速公路现金流稳定且分红稳定，股息确定仍是交运红利优选。行业政策优化箭在弦上，将系统性改善行业再投资风险 · 增持评级: 皖通高速H/A、招商公路、宁沪高速H/A、深圳国际。相关标的: 四川成渝、山东高速、粤 ...

Investment Rating - The transportation industry is rated as "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The battery swapping model is achieving "time-saving, labor-saving, worry-free, and more profitable" results, with Cao Cao Mobility planning to deploy 100,000 Robotaxi vehicles by 2030 [3][13] - EHang Intelligent expects to achieve full-year GAAP profitability in 2026, with order volume, production capacity, and profitability milestones validating the commercialization of eVTOL [3][15] - The U.S. Department of Transportation and FAA have launched an eVTOL integration pilot program, with eight projects selected to commence real operational testing in the summer of 2026 [3][16] - Cathay Pacific has raised fuel surcharges, reflecting the transmission of oil price shocks to ticket prices [3][18] - Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is nearly stagnant due to escalating U.S.-Iran conflicts, increasing shipping risks and oil prices [3][29] Industry Dynamics Tracking - The Baltic Air Freight Price Index has increased month-on-month but decreased year-on-year [4][31] - The shipping and port sector shows an increase in container shipping rates and dry bulk freight rates, while oil shipping rates have decreased [4][43] - In express logistics, the volume of express deliveries increased by 2.30% year-on-year in December 2025, with revenue up by 0.70% [4] - In aviation, the average daily international flights in the second week of March 2026 were 1,750.29, down 2.92% month-on-month but up 7.12% year-on-year [4] - The number of trucks passing through national highways increased by 40.64% week-on-week from March 2 to March 8 [4] Investment Recommendations - Focus on low-altitude economy and autonomous driving trends, recommending companies like CITIC Heli and Cao Cao Mobility [5] - Monitor opportunities in the shipping sector, particularly in oil, dry bulk, and container shipping, recommending companies like China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping [5] - Explore international market expansion opportunities in express logistics, recommending SF Express and Jitu Express [5] - Keep an eye on investment opportunities in high-speed rail and highways, recommending Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway [5] - Dynamic monitoring of aviation investment opportunities, recommending China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines [5]

Investment Rating - The transportation industry is rated as "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The battery swapping model is expected to enhance efficiency and profitability, with Cao Cao Mobility planning to deploy 100,000 Robotaxi vehicles by 2030 [3][13] - EHang is projected to achieve full-year GAAP profitability in 2026, with significant growth in orders and production validating the commercialization of eVTOL [3][15] - The U.S. Department of Transportation and FAA have initiated an eVTOL integration pilot program, with eight projects set to begin real-world operational testing in summer 2026 [3][16] - Cathay Pacific has raised fuel surcharges due to soaring oil prices, reflecting the impact of geopolitical tensions on ticket pricing [3][18] - Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly halted due to escalating U.S.-Iran conflicts, increasing shipping risks and oil prices [3][29] Industry Dynamics Tracking - The Baltic Air Freight Price Index has increased month-on-month but decreased year-on-year [4][31] - The shipping and port sector has seen a rise in container shipping rates, while oil shipping rates have declined [4][43] - The express logistics sector reported a 2.30% year-on-year increase in business volume for December 2025 [4][31] - In March 2026, the average daily international flights was 1,750.29, showing a 7.12% year-on-year increase [4][31] - The highway and railway sector reported a 40.64% month-on-month increase in truck traffic from March 2 to March 8 [4][31] Investment Recommendations - Focus on low-altitude economy and autonomous driving sectors for investment opportunities, recommending companies like CITIC Hainan and Cao Cao Mobility [5] - Monitor shipping opportunities in the context of Middle Eastern geopolitical developments, recommending companies such as China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping [5] - Explore international market expansion opportunities in express logistics, recommending SF Express and Jitu Express [5] - Keep an eye on high-speed rail and highway investment opportunities, recommending companies like Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway [5] - Dynamic monitoring of the airline sector, recommending companies such as Air China and China Southern Airlines [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the transportation industry, indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [78]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant impact of the ongoing Middle East conflict on shipping rates, with oil tanker rates experiencing a decline but remaining at historical highs, while container shipping rates are on the rise [1][2]. - The daily average of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz has drastically decreased by 95% to 5 vessels, compared to 125 vessels before the conflict, with oil tankers averaging only 1 vessel per day [1][11]. - Brent crude oil futures have shown substantial volatility, closing at $103.89 per barrel, an increase of 11% from March 6 [1][15]. Industry Data Tracking Shipping Market Impact - Oil shipping rates have adjusted from historical highs, with the Clarksons VLCC-TCE index at $175,000, down 54.2% week-on-week. The Middle East to China route is reported at $390,000 per day, down 17% [2][18]. - Container shipping rates have increased, with the SCFI index reaching 1710 points, up 14.9% week-on-week, driven by rising fuel costs and the ongoing geopolitical situation [2][25]. - The dry bulk shipping market has seen limited impact, with the BDI index at 2028 points, reflecting a 0.9% increase week-on-week [2][26]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that if the Middle East conflict remains manageable and the passage through the Strait of Hormuz gradually resumes, it could trigger a replenishment market. The report continues to recommend companies such as China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy [3][31]. - Emphasis is placed on the importance of energy resource security, with recommendations for logistics and warehousing companies like Hongchuan Wisdom and Milky Way [3][31]. - The report also highlights the potential for growth in the aviation sector, with a focus on major airlines and logistics companies, suggesting a favorable outlook for companies like China Southern Airlines and Spring Airlines [4][58].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation industry [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights investment opportunities in the aviation sector due to recent price corrections and the potential for recovery in demand, particularly in the context of rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions [4][6]. - The logistics and express delivery sectors are expected to benefit from ongoing improvements in operational quality and a shift towards higher profitability driven by anti-competitive measures [6]. - The infrastructure segment, particularly highways, is recommended due to increased demand for safe-haven assets amid economic uncertainties [6]. Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The aviation sector is poised for a rebound as passenger demand continues to recover, with significant growth expected in both domestic and international markets [4][6]. - Key airlines such as China Southern Airlines and Spring Airlines are highlighted for their strong operational metrics and growth potential [4][6]. Operational Tracking - Recent data indicates a mixed performance in the aviation sector, with daily flight operations showing a slight decline week-on-week but an overall increase year-on-year [4]. - The logistics sector is experiencing a slight decrease in package collection but a notable increase in delivery volume, indicating a resilient demand [6]. Shipping Data Tracking - The shipping industry is witnessing fluctuations in freight rates, with the SCFI index showing a significant increase, indicating a positive trend for shipping rates [6]. - Oil shipping rates are expected to rise due to geopolitical tensions and supply constraints, presenting investment opportunities in this segment [6]. Infrastructure Data Tracking - Recent statistics show an increase in highway traffic, suggesting a recovery in freight movement, which is beneficial for highway operators [6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of infrastructure investments, particularly in highways, as a stable investment avenue amid economic volatility [6].

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Positive" for investment (first-time rating) [1] Core Viewpoints - The highway industry in China has entered a mature phase, with a slowdown in investment construction. Despite a decline in fixed asset investment from 2023 to 2024, highways still account for over 50% of road fixed asset investment, remaining a key area for construction [5][14] - The core revenue model for highway companies relies on toll collection, which is influenced by toll standards, traffic volume, and travel mileage, with traffic volume being the primary driver. The cost structure is stable, primarily consisting of depreciation and amortization [5][28] - The upcoming revision of the "Highway Toll Management Regulations" is expected to enhance cash flow sustainability for companies by potentially extending toll collection periods [5][36] - The high dividend yield and stable cash flow characteristics of the highway sector make it attractive for defensive investment, especially in a low-risk yield environment [5] Summary by Sections 1. Basic Situation: Industry Maturity and Investment Slowdown - The highway industry has matured after over 30 years of development, with a noticeable decline in investment construction expected in 2023-2024. Highways still represent a significant portion of road investment, with 2024 projected to see 25,774 billion yuan in total road investment, of which 14,015 billion yuan is allocated to highways, accounting for 54.4% [5][14] - The eastern road network is relatively complete, with future growth primarily concentrated in the western regions. In 2024, new highway mileage is expected to be 1,144 km in the east, 2,420 km in the central region, 3,162 km in the west, and 454 km in the northeast [21][24] 2. Profit Model: Stable Revenue and Margin, Profit Flexibility from Lower Borrowing Costs - The revenue model for highway companies is based on toll collection under a franchise system, with income driven by toll standards, traffic volume, and travel mileage. The pricing is relatively rigid, set by the government, and traffic volume is the main revenue driver [28][30] - The cost structure is primarily composed of depreciation and amortization, with stable gross margins. Financial expenses are significant, and companies are expected to benefit from lower borrowing costs due to a declining Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [5][28][32] 3. Anticipation of New Management Regulations and Deepening Market Value Management - The anticipated revision of the "Highway Toll Management Regulations" may extend toll collection periods and improve the toll system, enhancing cash flow sustainability for companies [5][36] - Market value management has become a key focus for state-owned enterprises, with high cash dividend plans significantly driving stock prices. Companies that have been undervalued are expected to see valuation recovery [5][36]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the shipping industry, particularly highlighting companies such as China Merchants Energy, COSCO Shipping Energy, and ST Songfa as key recommendations [3][5]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the theoretical upper limit for tanker freight rates is influenced by geopolitical risks and supply chain disruptions, with current freight rates reflecting a premium due to risk assessments rather than actual transaction prices [5]. - The report notes a significant increase in VLCC average freight rates, which rose by 89% week-on-week, reaching $390,970 per day, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [5]. - The report highlights the resilience of the railway and highway freight volumes, with a notable increase in national railway freight volume by 9.77% and highway truck traffic by 229.69% [5]. Summary by Sections Shipping - The report indicates that the theoretical freight rate for oil tankers is approximately $93 per barrel, translating to a TCE of about $3.66 million per day, while the lower limit for shipowners is estimated between $40 to $87.5 per barrel [5]. - The report observes that the average freight rate for VLCCs has surged, particularly on the Middle East to China route, which jumped 108% to $480,557 per day [5]. Dry Bulk - The report states that the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has limited direct impacts on the dry bulk market, although high fuel prices are exerting pressure on TCE [5]. - The BDI recorded a decrease of 6.1% week-on-week, with Capesize rates dropping by 13.9% to $23,858 per day [5]. Air Transport - The report highlights that the global aircraft manufacturing chain is facing unprecedented challenges, with an aging fleet and supply constraints expected to continue [5]. - It suggests that airlines are poised for significant profit improvements as demand for international travel increases [5]. Express Delivery - The report anticipates that policies ensuring end-user rights will stabilize delivery fees, allowing for gradual recovery in pricing and profitability for leading companies in the sector [5]. - Companies such as ZTO Express and YTO Express are noted for their expanding market positions and profitability potential [5]. Rail and Road - The report indicates that freight volumes in both rail and highway sectors are showing resilience, with significant increases reported in recent weeks [5]. - It suggests that traditional high-dividend investment themes and potential market management catalysts are worth monitoring in the highway sector [5].