UTour (002707) 国泰君安·2024-11-01 03:14Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of CNY 9.00, up from the previous target of CNY 7.92 [4] Core Views - The Q3 2024 performance met expectations, with further recovery potential in East Asia and Southeast Asia [1] - The company is expected to benefit from industry consolidation and continue to focus on retail expansion [2] - Revenue recovery is on track, with Europe outperforming East Asia and Southeast Asia [2] - The company's profit margin is expected to stabilize between 2-3%, returning to normal levels [2] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue reached CNY 2.106 billion, up 67.06% YoY, representing 54.8% of 2019 levels [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 51.73 million, up 6.31% YoY [2] - For the first three quarters of 2024, cumulative revenue was CNY 4.723 billion, up 130.05% YoY, representing 49.26% of 2019 levels [2] - Net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 2.62%, down from 4% in Q3 2023, reflecting a return to normal levels [2] Market and Industry Analysis - The company's market share has increased due to industry consolidation [2] - European destinations have recovered better than Asian ones, with Thailand and Japan lagging behind [2] - The company is expected to achieve a steady-state profit margin higher than pre-2019 levels through operational efficiency and staff optimization [2] - The company plans to expand its retail channels using a franchise model to strengthen its market position and brand recognition [2] Financial Forecasts - Revenue for 2024/25/26 is forecasted to be CNY 6.972 billion, CNY 9.508 billion, and CNY 11.219 billion, respectively [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024/25/26 is expected to be CNY 168 million, CNY 241 million, and CNY 290 million, respectively [3] - EPS for 2024/25/26 is projected to be CNY 0.17, CNY 0.25, and CNY 0.29, respectively [3] Valuation Metrics - The company's PE ratio for 2024 is 45.40x, expected to decrease to 31.70x in 2025 and 26.40x in 2026 [3] - The PB ratio for 2024 is 7.78x, expected to decrease to 6.25x in 2025 and 5.05x in 2026 [9] - The PS ratio for 2024 is 1.10x, expected to decrease to 0.80x in 2025 and 0.68x in 2026 [9]