基础化工：烧碱、PVC价格上涨，下游地产需求仍然偏弱

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform the Market" [3][43]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the price of caustic soda is entering an upward channel, while PVC prices have stabilized and rebounded [2][9]. - The supply side remains robust with high operating rates, ensuring overall supply is sufficient [2][15]. - Downstream demand shows growth in the paper industry, but real estate completions have not yet bottomed out [2][21]. Price Analysis - As of October 28, the price of liquid caustic soda is 1,025 CNY/ton, up 12.6% month-on-month; flake caustic soda is 3,879.17 CNY/ton, up 20.1%; liquid chlorine is 245 CNY/ton, up 66.4%; ethylene-based PVC is 5,950 CNY/ton, up 0.8%; and calcium carbide-based PVC is 5,050 CNY/ton, up 2.0% [2][9]. Supply Analysis - As of October 24, caustic soda production reached 776,400 tons with an operating load rate of 84.11%; inventory stands at 160,200 tons. PVC operating load is at 75.02% with an inventory of 350,970 tons [2][15]. Downstream Demand - In September, alumina production was 7.311 million tons, up 3.4% year-on-year; the industrial added value of the paper and paper products industry increased by 4.7% year-on-year. However, cumulative housing construction area is 560 million square meters, down 22.3% year-on-year, and real estate completion area is 37 million square meters, down 24.4% year-on-year [2][21].