立高食品：奶油延续高增表现，Q3盈利改善明显

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 43.56, compared to the last closing price of 35.40 [1]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.717 billion and a net profit of 203 million for the first three quarters of 2024, showing a year-on-year increase of 5.2% and 28.2% respectively [1]. - The third quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 936 million, a slight decline of 1.1% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 35.1% to 68 million [1]. - The company’s cream products continue to show strong growth, with a year-on-year increase of 70% in cream product sales [1]. - The company is focusing on improving operational efficiency and scaling effects by streamlining the number of distributors and supporting top distributors [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.717 billion, with a net profit of 203 million, and a non-recurring profit of 192 million, reflecting increases of 28.2% and 31.3% year-on-year respectively [1]. - The third quarter results showed a revenue of 936 million, with net profit at 68 million, marking a 35.1% increase year-on-year [1]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 31.3%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising prices of oils and imported dairy products [1]. Product and Market Insights - The company’s frozen baking products saw a decline of approximately 7% year-on-year, attributed to adjustments in product listings in supermarkets [1]. - The baking raw materials segment grew by about 30%, driven by the strong sales of new cream products [1]. - The company has signed strategic contracts with major clients in the catering sector, which is expected to contribute to revenue growth [3]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 3.8 billion, 4.2 billion, and 4.7 billion respectively, with net profits expected to reach 268 million, 335 million, and 391 million [4]. - The report anticipates a significant increase in net profit for 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 267.5% [4]. - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory in the cream product segment, especially with the upcoming launch of new products in Q4 [3].