青岛啤酒：成本延续改善趋势，短期需求承压

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][6]. Core Insights - The company experienced a decline in sales volume and revenue in the first three quarters of 2024, with total revenue of 28.96 billion yuan, down 6.52% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.99 billion yuan, showing a slight increase of 1.67% year-on-year [4][5]. - The beer market is facing weak consumer demand, impacting both low-end and mid-to-high-end products. The company's sales volume for the first three quarters was 6.785 million tons, down 6.98% year-on-year, with a price increase of 0.50% [4]. - Cost improvements have led to an increase in gross margin, which reached 41.76%, up 2.03 percentage points year-on-year. The decline in raw material costs, particularly for barley and glass bottles, contributed to this improvement [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported total revenue of 28.96 billion yuan, with a net profit of 4.99 billion yuan. The third quarter alone saw revenue of 8.89 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.35 billion yuan [4]. - The company forecasts revenue for 2024 to be 31.88 billion yuan, with a slight recovery expected in 2025 and 2026, projecting revenues of 32.90 billion yuan and 33.86 billion yuan respectively [5][6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for the next three years are projected to be 3.20 yuan, 3.64 yuan, and 4.08 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 21, 18, and 16 [6].