DEPPON(603056) 国金证券·2024-11-01 06:10Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 28.296 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.21%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 517 million yuan, up 9.71% year-on-year. However, in Q3 2024, revenue was 9.850 billion yuan, a slight increase of 1.03%, while net profit decreased by 19.40% to 184 million yuan [1]. Revenue Analysis - The revenue growth is primarily driven by the express delivery business, which saw a decline of 18% in Q3 2024, generating 535 million yuan. In contrast, the fast freight business reported a revenue of 8.879 billion yuan, up 1.23% year-on-year, with a core business volume of 3.4097 million tons, increasing by 9.37% [1]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 7.42%, down 0.71 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to increased transportation costs. The expense ratio decreased to 5.26%, down 0.98 percentage points year-on-year, with sales expenses rising by 47.34% to 187 million yuan, while management expenses fell by 32.69% to 260 million yuan [1]. Cost Control and Efficiency - The company has made significant progress in cost control, with labor costs as a percentage of revenue decreasing by 2.05 percentage points due to lean management initiatives and optimization of business structure. The coverage rate for rural delivery has improved to 94.18% [1]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 820 million yuan, 1.05 billion yuan, and 1.29 billion yuan, respectively, down from previous estimates of 1.11 billion yuan, 1.37 billion yuan, and 1.65 billion yuan [1].