深圳写字楼市场报告 2024年 Q3

Market Overview and Outlook - The Shenzhen Grade A office market experienced a moderate recovery in Q3 2024, with no new supply entering the market and a significant increase in net absorption of 89,000 square meters [3] - Average rents continued to face downward pressure, declining by 2.8% quarter-on-quarter to RMB 161.3 per square meter per month, while the vacancy rate decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 25.1% [3] - The recovery is expected to accelerate due to major economic stimulus policies, with accumulated leasing demand likely to be released in the coming quarters [3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - No new supply was recorded in Q3 2024, with the market focusing on absorbing existing inventory [10] - Net absorption reached 89,000 square meters, a 30% increase quarter-on-quarter, driven by the peak leasing season [10] - Over 200,000 square meters of new supply is expected to enter the market in Q4 2024, potentially putting upward pressure on vacancy rates [10] Rental Market Trends - The overall rental market remained tenant-favorable, with landlords adopting aggressive pricing strategies to attract tenants [6] - Submarkets such as Futian CBD, Chegongmiao, Technology Park, and Houhai experienced significant rent declines, averaging 5.0% quarter-on-quarter [6] - The westward migration of tenants, particularly to Qianhai, is expected to intensify rental market pressures in traditional business districts [8] Industry Sector Analysis - TMT sector dominated leasing demand, accounting for 57% of total demand, with notable transactions in AI software development and cultural media [10] - Accommodation and hotel industry emerged as the second-largest demand driver, benefiting from expansion plans and favorable rental conditions [10] - Professional services ranked third, with law firms and human resources showing strong demand resilience [10] Investment Market - No major transactions were recorded in Q3 2024, but market inquiries showed significant growth [11] - Policy factors, including a 50-basis-point Fed rate cut and China's comprehensive economic stimulus measures, are expected to boost market activity [11] - Further Fed rate cuts anticipated in Q4 2024 may enhance global capital flows and increase investment opportunities in the office market [11] Submarket Performance - Futian CBD recorded the highest rents at RMB 188.8 per square meter per month, despite a 4.0% quarter-on-quarter decline [7] - Technology Park maintained the lowest vacancy rate at 15.4%, while Houhai had the highest at 34.8% [7] - Qianhai emerged as a key destination for tenant migration, with rents at RMB 151.9 per square meter per month and a vacancy rate of 30.8% [7] Future Outlook - The market is expected to enter a supply peak in Q4 2024, with over 200,000 square meters of new supply [10] - Rental levels are likely to remain under pressure, though the rate of decline may narrow as demand is released [8] - The westward migration trend and policy-driven capital inflows are expected to reshape the market landscape in the coming quarters [8][11]