广州写字楼市场报告 2024年 Q3

Market Overview and Outlook - The Guangzhou Grade A office market is gradually recovering, but growth momentum still needs to accumulate [1] - In Q3 2024, leasing demand in Guangzhou cooled slightly, with net absorption dropping to 22,073 sqm [1] - The average Grade A office rent in Guangzhou stabilized, with a slight decrease of 0.1% QoQ to RMB 134.8 per sqm [1] - The overall vacancy rate increased by 0.5 percentage points QoQ to 12.6%, influenced by new supply and slowing demand [1] - Newly established companies and expansion demands showed resilience, indicating a gradual recovery in the market [1] - TMT, public services, and financial sectors were the main drivers of leasing demand, with TMT showing particularly strong growth [1] - One major office transaction was recorded in Q3, with a transaction value of RMB 1.96 billion, signaling a recovery in large-scale transactions [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - In Q4 2024, delayed office projects are expected to enter the market, adding over 100,000 sqm of new supply [2] - The annual net absorption in Guangzhou over the past decade averaged 300,000 sqm, but by Q3 2024, it only reached 80,000 sqm [2] - A backlog of leasing demand is expected to be released by the end of the year, driven by both supply and demand growth [2] - Rents and vacancy rates are expected to remain within reasonable cyclical fluctuations, without significant volatility [2] Rent Trends - In Q3 2024, Guangzhou office rents showed signs of stabilization, with average rents dropping to RMB 134.9 per sqm per month, a 0.1% QoQ decline [6] - Submarkets outside Zhujiang New Town showed relatively stable rents, with mild QoQ changes, indicating a trend towards stabilization [6] - Zhujiang New Town adopted more aggressive pricing strategies, resulting in a 2.2% QoQ rent decline [6] - Over 100,000 sqm of new supply is expected in Q4 2024, which may intensify downward pressure on rents [6] Submarket Performance - In Q3 2024, Tianhe North had an average rent of RMB 128.5 per sqm per month, with a vacancy rate of 7.6% [7] - Zhujiang New Town's average rent was RMB 149.3 per sqm per month, with a vacancy rate of 11.3% [7] - Yuexiu's average rent was RMB 115.2 per sqm per month, with a vacancy rate of 8.2% [7] - Pazhou's average rent was RMB 122.4 per sqm per month, with a vacancy rate of 19.5% [7] - Financial City's average rent was RMB 104.4 per sqm per month, with a vacancy rate of 31.7% [7] Leasing Activity - In Q3 2024, relocation activities dominated leasing, accounting for 58% of total activity [8] - Newly established companies accounted for 25% of leasing demand, showing strong resilience [8] - Expansion demand was twice the reduction demand, indicating a stabilizing market [8] - TMT led the leasing demand with a 36.8% share, followed by public services at 10.9% and financial services at 10.0% [9] - The insurance sector contributed nearly 80% of the financial sector's leasing demand in July-August 2024 [9] Investment Market - In Q3 2024, the Guangzhou office investment market showed signs of recovery with one major transaction worth RMB 1.96 billion [11] - The transaction involved the acquisition of a Grade A office project with a total GFA of 56,970 sqm, at a unit price of RMB 34,404.07 per sqm [11] - The transaction was completed in two stages, with the second stage finalized in August 2024 [11] - Low valuations and attractive investment returns are expected to attract more external capital in Q4 2024 [11] Regional Data - As of Q3 2024, Zhujiang New Town had a total Grade A office stock of 4.46 million sqm, with an average rent of RMB 149.3 per sqm per month and a vacancy rate of 11.3% [12] - Tianhe North had a total stock of 1.13 million sqm, with an average rent of RMB 128.5 per sqm per month and a vacancy rate of 7.6% [12] - Financial City had a total stock of 210,000 sqm, with an average rent of RMB 104.4 per sqm per month and a vacancy rate of 31.7% [12] - Pazhou had a total stock of 2.14 million sqm, with an average rent of RMB 122.4 per sqm per month and a vacancy rate of 19.5% [12] - Yuexiu had a total stock of 1.59 million sqm, with an average rent of RMB 115.2 per sqm per month and a vacancy rate of 8.2% [12]