SA(601021)2024-11-01 06:15Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, Spring Airlines [4]. Core Views - The third quarter of 2024 saw Spring Airlines report a net profit of 1.244 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 32.37%, with operating revenue remaining stable at 6.102 billion yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 0.48% year-on-year [4]. - The airline's operational data showed significant growth in passenger demand, with overall ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) up 30% compared to 2019, and RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometers) up 31% compared to 2019 [4]. - The company’s fleet size reached 128 aircraft by the end of Q3 2024, marking a 45.5% increase compared to 2019 [4]. - The report indicates that the international recovery is slower than expected, leading to adjustments in profit forecasts for 2024-2026 [4]. Summary by Sections Market Data - Closing price: 56.27 yuan - One-year high/low: 67.62/47.72 yuan - Market capitalization: 55,063 million yuan [2]. Financial Data - Q3 2024 net profit: 1.244 billion yuan, down 32.37% year-on-year - Q3 2024 operating revenue: 6.102 billion yuan, up 0.48% year-on-year - Q3 2024 operating cost: 4.535 billion yuan, with a unit cost of 0.3 yuan [4][5]. Earnings Forecast - 2024E total revenue: 20,992 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 17.0% - 2024E net profit: 2,446 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.4% [5][6]. Operational Metrics - Domestic ASK recovery: 161% of 2019 levels, up 4% year-on-year - International ASK recovery: 78% of 2019 levels, up 49% year-on-year [4]. Profitability Metrics - Q3 2024 passenger kilometer yield: 0.51 yuan, up 5.2% compared to 2019, down 9.2% compared to 2023 [4]. - Forecasted PE ratios for 2024-2026: 23x, 17x, and 13x respectively [4].