2024年10月PMI数据解读：政策效果初步显现

Group 1: PMI Overview - The manufacturing PMI for October is 50.1%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous value, which is better than the average decline of 0.5% over the past five years[1] - The non-manufacturing PMI stands at 50.2%, up by 0.2 percentage points from the previous value[1] - The production index, a key contributor, rose to 52.0%, increasing by 0.8 percentage points, which supported a 0.2 percentage point rise in the manufacturing PMI[1] Group 2: Sector Performance - The basic raw materials industry saw a significant PMI rebound, while high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing experienced declines, with PMIs of 50.1% and 51.3%, down by 2.9 and 0.7 percentage points respectively[1] - The new export orders index fell to 47.3%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points, primarily due to the fading "rush for exports" effect and recent tariff impacts[1] Group 3: Price and Inventory Indicators - The raw material purchase price index and the factory price index for October are 53.4% and 49.9%, respectively, with increases of 8.3 and 5.9 percentage points from the previous month[1] - The raw material inventory index rose to 48.2%, up by 0.5 percentage points, while the finished goods inventory index decreased to 46.9%, down by 1.5 percentage points[1] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The overall PMI trend shows continued marginal improvement, reflecting the initial effects of a series of policies aimed at stimulating the economy[1] - Achieving a GDP growth target of around 5% appears challenging, with attention needed on potential budget adjustments by the National People's Congress on November 8[1]