DEPPON(603056) 国信证券·2024-11-01 06:39Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Deppon Logistics (603056 SH) [2][4] Core Views - Deppon Logistics' Q3 2024 performance was under pressure due to macroeconomic challenges and lower-than-expected contribution from JD Logistics [1][6] - The company achieved revenue of RMB 28 3 billion (+11 2%) and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 517 million (+9 71%) in the first three quarters of 2024 [1][6] - Q3 2024 revenue grew by only 1 0% YoY to RMB 9 85 billion, with net profit attributable to shareholders declining by 19 4% YoY to RMB 184 million [1][6] - The integration of Deppon and JD Logistics networks is progressing steadily, with a reduction of over 40 distribution centers and a 10% decrease in area YoY in Q3 2024 [1][6] - Core express delivery business (excluding JD Logistics impact) achieved a 9 37% YoY growth in volume to 3 4097 million tons in Q3 2024 [1][6] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 labor costs decreased by 4 23% YoY, accounting for 2 05 percentage points less of revenue [1][10] - Transportation costs increased by 12 30% YoY in Q3 2024, accounting for 4 44 percentage points more of revenue [1][10] - Gross margin in H1 2024 was 7 42%, down 0 63 percentage points YoY, while net profit margin attributable to shareholders was 1 87%, down 0 47 percentage points YoY [1][10] - Q3 2024 operating expenses decreased by 14 9% YoY to RMB 518 million, with an operating expense ratio of 5 26%, down 0 99 percentage points YoY [1][10] Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue is expected to grow to RMB 39 725 billion (+9 5%) in 2024E, RMB 44 175 billion (+11 2%) in 2025E, and RMB 48 718 billion (+10 3%) in 2026E [3][11] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to reach RMB 882 million (+18 2%) in 2024E, RMB 1 142 billion (+29 5%) in 2025E, and RMB 1 401 billion (+22 7%) in 2026E [3][11] - EPS is projected to be RMB 0 86 in 2024E, RMB 1 11 in 2025E, and RMB 1 36 in 2026E [3][11] - ROE is expected to improve from 10 6% in 2024E to 13 7% in 2026E [3][11] - The company's PE ratio is forecasted to decline from 16 7x in 2024E to 10 5x in 2026E [3][11]