山西汾酒：24Q3点评：经营符合预期，现金流表现优异

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 31.358 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.25%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.35 billion yuan, up 20.34% year-on-year. In Q3 2024, the revenue was 8.611 billion yuan, an increase of 11.35% year-on-year, and the net profit was 2.94 billion yuan, growing by 10.36% year-on-year, aligning with expectations [5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 8.611 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11.35%, and a net profit of 2.94 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 10.36% year-on-year [5][6] - The operating cash flow for Q3 2024 was 3.505 billion yuan, showing a significant increase of 67.22% year-on-year, driven by a 30.77% increase in cash received from sales [7] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is adjusted to 12.534 billion, 14.309 billion, and 15.754 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 20%, 14%, and 10% [6][8] - The projected revenue for 2024 is 36.805 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 15.3% [8] Market and Product Insights - The company has a strong brand heritage and unique advantages in the light aroma category, with significant growth potential in the eastern and southern markets of China [6] - In Q3 2024, the revenue from high-end liquor was 6.188 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7%, while other liquor categories saw revenue of 2.405 billion yuan, growing by 26% [6][7]