NHD(002946)2024-11-01 07:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 8.15 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 470 million yuan, an increase of 24.4% year-on-year [1]. - The company's core categories, particularly low-temperature fresh milk and yogurt, continue to grow despite a challenging market environment, driven by its "fresh strategy" [1][2]. - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 6.4%, up 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a decrease in raw milk prices and an improved product mix [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.79 billion yuan, down 3.8% year-on-year, with a net profit of 180 million yuan, up 22.9% year-on-year [1]. - The gross profit margin was 28.8%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from a favorable raw milk price environment and a shift towards higher-end products [2]. Strategic Insights - The company is focusing on its "fresh strategy," which emphasizes innovation and brand positioning, leading to growth in its core product categories [1][2]. - The DTC (Direct-to-Consumer) business is rapidly growing, contributing to market share expansion [1]. Profit Forecast - The report adjusts profit forecasts, expecting net profits of 560 million yuan, 670 million yuan, and 800 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 29.0%, 21.4%, and 18.5% [3]. - The projected PE ratios for the same years are 19, 16, and 13 times [3].