Daqo Energy(688303) 民生证券·2024-11-01 07:15Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on its market position and operational efficiency [5]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q1-Q3 2024 showed a significant decline in revenue and net profit, primarily due to an imbalance in supply and demand within the photovoltaic industry, leading to low prices for silicon materials [1][2]. - Despite the challenging market conditions, the company has demonstrated strong cost control capabilities and maintained a high proportion of N-type silicon production, which is crucial for its competitive edge [2]. - The company's cash reserves are robust, totaling 144.9 billion yuan, which is expected to support its operations through the industry cycle [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company reported revenues of 6.005 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 53.37%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -1.099 billion yuan, down 121.49% [1]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenues of 1.421 billion yuan, a decline of 60.01% year-on-year, with a net profit of -429 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year drop of 162.27% [1]. - The company's cash cost in Q3 2024 was 38.93 yuan/kg, a decrease of 3.1% from the previous quarter, while the unit cost increased to 48.83 yuan/kg, up 6.3% due to reduced production [2]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 7.394 billion yuan, 13.394 billion yuan, and 16.232 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be -1.409 billion yuan, 865 million yuan, and 1.680 billion yuan [6]. - The company is expected to achieve a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 80x in 2025 and 41x in 2026, indicating a potential recovery in profitability as market conditions improve [3][6].