Xinda Securities·2024-11-01 07:16Investment Rating - The investment rating for Postal Savings Bank is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the analysis suggests a positive outlook based on revenue and profit growth trends [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that Postal Savings Bank achieved a revenue of 260.349 billion yuan in Q3 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.09% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.22% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 75.818 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 0.62%, resulting in an annualized weighted average return on equity of 11.79% [1]. - The bank's total assets grew by 9.34% year-on-year, reaching a scale of 16.7 trillion yuan, with loans and advances amounting to 2.22 trillion yuan, primarily driven by growth in corporate loans [1]. - The net interest margin stood at 1.89%, down by 2 basis points from the previous half-year, indicating ongoing pressure on interest income [1]. - The bank continues to focus on supporting the real economy, particularly in high-tech manufacturing, strategic emerging industries, and inclusive finance, which has led to rapid growth in loan scales [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2023 was reported at 334.956 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 2.25% year-on-year. Projections for 2024 and beyond indicate a revenue growth rate of 7.47% in 2024, 9.21% in 2025, and 9.00% in 2026 [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was 86.270 billion yuan, with a modest growth of 1.23%. Forecasts suggest a growth of 10.59% in 2024, 9.38% in 2025, and 12.32% in 2026 [3][2]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio was reported at 0.86%, showing a decrease of 3 basis points year-on-year, indicating stable asset quality [1]. - The provision coverage ratio improved, with a non-performing loan generation rate of 0.79%, reflecting ongoing improvements in asset quality [1][5]. Loan and Deposit Growth - The bank's loan portfolio is projected to grow significantly, with total loans expected to reach approximately 9.21 trillion yuan in 2024, increasing to 11.91 trillion yuan by 2026 [8]. - Deposit growth is also anticipated, with total deposits expected to reach 15.49 trillion yuan in 2024, continuing to support the bank's funding base [8][11]. Strategic Focus - Postal Savings Bank is committed to enhancing its retail banking capabilities and has been actively increasing its credit support in rural revitalization and small micro-enterprises [1][2]. - The bank's strategy includes optimizing its deposit structure and reducing costs through adjustments in savings agency fee rates, which are expected to contribute positively to profitability [1][2].