山西汾酒：业绩符合预期，青花系列保持稳健，腰部产品放量

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu with a target price of 233 CNY, compared to the last closing price of 197.10 CNY [1][11]. Core Insights - The performance of Shanxi Fenjiu aligns with expectations, with steady growth in the Qinghua series and increased volume in mid-tier products. The company reported a revenue of 31.358 billion CNY for Q1-Q3 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.25%, and a net profit of 11.350 billion CNY, up 20.34% year-on-year [2][4]. - The company has seen strong growth in both provincial and out-of-province markets, with out-of-province revenue growing by 26.9% year-on-year [2][4]. - The gross profit margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 76.03%, slightly up from the previous year, while the net profit margin was 36.23%, also showing an increase [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, Shanxi Fenjiu achieved a revenue of 8.611 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 11.35%, and a net profit of 2.940 billion CNY, up 10.36% year-on-year [2][4]. - The company plans to launch new products priced at 600 CNY and is preparing for the Qinghua 26 product [2][4]. Product and Market Analysis - Revenue from high-end liquor and other liquor categories for Q1-Q3 2024 was 22.614 billion CNY and 8.638 billion CNY, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 14.3% and 26.87% [2][4]. - The company has expanded its dealer network, with 825 dealers in the province and 3,543 outside the province, reflecting a net increase of 5 and 423 dealers, respectively [2][4]. Profitability and Forecast - The report forecasts revenue growth of 16%, 14%, and 12% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profit growth of 17%, 16%, and 12% for the same years [2][4].