WLY(SZ:000858) Tai Ping Yang·2024-11-01 07:17Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" to Wuliangye, with a target price of 167.94 CNY, compared to the last closing price of 148.80 CNY [1]. Core Views - Wuliangye's performance in Q1-Q3 2024 met expectations, with revenue of 67.916 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 8.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 24.931 billion CNY, also up 9.2% year-on-year [1]. - The company has increased its dividend payout, aiming for a dividend rate exceeding 70% over the next three years, with a minimum total cash dividend of 20 billion CNY each year [1]. - The report highlights strong cash flow and contract liabilities, indicating robust operational performance despite a slight slowdown in sales growth due to market conditions [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Wuliangye are as follows: 2023A: 83.272 billion CNY, 2024E: 91.684 billion CNY, 2025E: 99.318 billion CNY, 2026E: 106.925 billion CNY, with growth rates of 12.58%, 10.10%, 8.33%, and 7.66% respectively [3]. - Net profit forecasts are: 2023A: 30.211 billion CNY, 2024E: 33.344 billion CNY, 2025E: 36.213 billion CNY, 2026E: 39.285 billion CNY, with growth rates of 13.19%, 10.37%, 8.60%, and 8.48% respectively [3]. - The report indicates a diluted EPS of 7.78 CNY for 2023A, projected to rise to 10.12 CNY by 2026E [3]. Balance Sheet and Cash Flow - As of 2023A, Wuliangye's total assets were 165.433 billion CNY, with cash and cash equivalents at 115.456 billion CNY [5]. - The operating cash flow for 2023A was reported at 41.742 billion CNY, with projections of 26.320 billion CNY for 2024E [5]. - The report notes a significant increase in contract liabilities, which stood at 7.072 billion CNY in Q3 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 31.23% [1].