周大生：黄金销售持续承压，Q3线上业务逆势增长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported its Q3 2024 results, which met expectations, with a revenue of 10.809 billion yuan for the first three quarters, down 13.49% year-on-year, and a net profit of 855 million yuan, down 21.95% year-on-year [3][4] - The decline in gold sales continues due to both gold prices and consumer sentiment, with Q3 revenue from gold jewelry down 40.91% year-on-year [3] - The company is focusing on product development and optimization to enhance brand strength, with online sales showing growth despite overall market challenges [3] Summary by Sections Market Data - Closing price as of October 30, 2024: 11.05 yuan - One-year high/low: 20.34/9.97 yuan - Price-to-book ratio: 1.9 - Dividend yield: 8.60% - Circulating A-share market value: 11,932 million yuan [1] Financial Performance - Q1-Q3 2024 revenue: 10.809 billion yuan, down 13.49% year-on-year - Q3 2024 revenue: 2.612 billion yuan, down 40.91% year-on-year - Q1-Q3 2024 net profit: 855 million yuan, down 21.95% year-on-year - Q3 2024 net profit: 253 million yuan, down 28.7% year-on-year [3][4] Product and Sales Channels - Revenue from self-operated, e-commerce, and franchise gold products for the first nine months: 12.62 billion, 10.22 billion, and 6.525 billion yuan, respectively [3] - Q3 2024 revenue from self-operated, online, and franchise channels: 3.58 billion, 2.61 billion, and 1.291 billion yuan, respectively [3] Profitability Metrics - Q1-Q3 2024 gross profit: 22.24 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 20.58% - Q3 2024 gross profit: 7.18 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 27.48% [3] - The company expects to see a gradual improvement in profitability as gold prices stabilize [3] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the traditional consumption peak in Q4 and a steady increase in gold prices, which may reduce consumer hesitation [3] - Revised profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are 1.086 billion, 1.218 billion, and 1.347 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 11, 10, and 9 [3][4]