青岛啤酒：需求平淡量价承压，期待后续基本面改善

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Qingdao Beer (600600) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the overall beer demand is weak due to the macroeconomic environment, leading to a decline in sales volume in Q3. The company achieved a revenue of 28.96 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year decrease of 6.5%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.99 billion yuan, an increase of 2% [1] - The report anticipates improvements in the company's fundamentals in the future, driven by cost reductions and strategic product launches [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 8.89 billion yuan, down 5.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.35 billion yuan, down 9% year-on-year. The beer sales volume for Q3 was 2.155 million tons, a decrease of 5.1% year-on-year, slightly better than the industry average decline of 5.3% [1] - The main brand's sales volume in Q3 was 1.255 million tons, down 4.1% year-on-year, while the mid-to-high-end beer sales volume was 0.883 million tons, down 4.7% year-on-year [1] - The average selling price per ton in Q3 was 4,126 yuan, a slight decrease of 0.2% year-on-year [1] Cost and Profitability - The gross margin for Q3 was 41.8%, an increase of 2 percentage points year-on-year, with a gross margin of 42.1% for the single quarter, up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year. This improvement was attributed to a decline in raw material costs, with the cost per ton decreasing by 2.2% to 2,388 yuan [2] - The selling expense ratio increased by 2.4 percentage points to 14.1% due to increased marketing efforts during the peak season, while the management expense ratio decreased by 0.9 percentage points to 3.1% [2] - The net profit margin attributable to the parent company decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 14.2% [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing release of cost advantages and the introduction of new products under the "1+1+1+2+N" strategy, which aims to enhance the market position of white beer and fresh beer [3] - The report forecasts that the earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 will be 3.27 yuan, 3.55 yuan, and 3.84 yuan, respectively, corresponding to dynamic price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 21 times, 19 times, and 17 times [3]