电力设备新能源行业2025年投资策略：风光曙光初现，储网景气依旧

Industry Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the power equipment and new energy sector, particularly focusing on photovoltaics (PV), wind power, energy storage, and grid investments [2] Core Views - Global PV demand is transitioning from high-speed growth to low-speed steady growth, with supply-side capacity clearing being a key inflection point for the industry [2] - Offshore wind project approvals are rebounding, with expectations for accelerated construction and stable profitability in the submarine cable segment [2] - Energy storage demand is driven by grid parity, with emerging markets in Asia, Africa, and Latin America showing higher elasticity [2] - Global grid investments are accelerating, with strong growth in distribution networks and exports, particularly under the "Belt and Road" initiative [2] Photovoltaics (PV) - Global PV demand is entering a low-growth phase, with China and Europe maintaining steady growth while the US faces policy uncertainties [11] - The industry is nearing an inflection point, with leading companies expected to weather the cycle due to cost control, technological advantages, and strong cash reserves [17] - Capacity expansion has slowed, and the clearing of outdated capacity is expected to alleviate supply-demand imbalances, with a potential inflection point in H1 2025 [24] - Investment recommendations include focusing on auxiliary materials leaders like Foster and Flat Glass, as well as undervalued integrated leaders like JinkoSolar, LONGi Green Energy, and JA Solar [46] Wind Power - Onshore wind installations continue to grow, while offshore wind construction has been slower due to regulatory delays [51] - Offshore wind project approvals have accelerated, with over 15GW approved in 2024, and significant potential in deep-sea projects [57] - The submarine cable segment remains profitable, with expectations for improved profitability as high-voltage cables gain traction [61] - Wind turbine manufacturers have seen improved profitability in H1 2024, with further gains expected as offshore wind demand recovers [61] - Investment recommendations include focusing on submarine cable leaders like Oriental Cable and ZTT Group, as well as wind turbine leaders like Goldwind and offshore-focused companies like Dajin Heavy Industry and Taisheng Wind Energy [68] Energy Storage - Energy storage demand is driven by declining levelized cost of energy (LCOE), with strong growth in the US and emerging markets [2] - The US market remains a key driver, with uncertainties around the 2024 election and trade policies [2] - European residential storage is expected to recover in 2025, with utility-scale storage showing higher growth potential [2] - Investment recommendations include focusing on energy storage PCS, PV inverters, and companies with high overseas exposure, such as Sungrow, Deye, and GoodWe [2] Grid Investments - Grid investments are expected to grow steadily from 2024 to 2025, with strong growth in distribution networks and exports [2] - Key areas of focus include ultra-high voltage (UHV) projects, "Belt and Road" exports, and grid digitalization [2] - Investment recommendations include focusing on distribution network and export leaders like Sanxing Medical, Sifang, and Huaming Equipment, as well as UHV leaders like Pinggao Electric and XJ Electric [2] Key Data and Trends - Global PV demand is expected to reach 592GW in 2024, with steady growth projected over the next decade [15] - Offshore wind project approvals in China have reached over 15GW in 2024, with significant potential in deep-sea projects [57] - The US energy storage market is expected to remain strong, with uncertainties around the 2024 election and trade policies [2]