ICBC(601398) EBSCN·2024-11-01 07:35Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1]. Core Insights - The company has shown resilience with a return to profit growth, despite a slight decline in revenue. The net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 was CNY 269 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.1% [4][5]. - The revenue for the first three quarters was CNY 626.4 billion, down 3.8% year-on-year, but the decline in revenue growth has narrowed compared to the first half of 2024 [5]. - The bank's asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan ratio holding steady at 1.35% as of the end of Q3 2024 [13]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company's operating income, pre-provision operating profit (PPOP), and net profit growth rates were -3.8%, -5.3%, and 0.1%, respectively, showing improvements from the first half of 2024 [5]. - The net interest income decreased by 4.9% year-on-year, but the decline was less severe than in the first half of 2024 [5]. - Non-interest income remained stable, with a slight year-on-year increase in net other non-interest income by 17.5% [12]. Asset Quality and Capital Adequacy - The company reported a non-performing loan balance of CNY 378 billion, with a slight increase of CNY 2.6 billion during the quarter [13]. - The provision coverage ratio improved slightly to 220.3% as of Q3 2024, indicating a strong buffer against potential loan losses [13]. - The capital adequacy ratios are robust, with a core tier 1 capital ratio of 13.95% and a total capital adequacy ratio of 19.25% [13][23]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2024-2026 is CNY 1.02, CNY 1.05, and CNY 1.08, respectively, with the current stock price reflecting a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.59, 0.55, and 0.51 for the respective years [14]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of CNY 1.434 per 10 shares, totaling CNY 51.1 billion, which represents a 30% payout ratio, enhancing investment stability [14].