纺织服装业2024年三季报总结系列：Q3制造延续优异，运动压力环比加大

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the textile and apparel industry, consistent with the previous rating [2] Core Views - Q3 manufacturing performance remained strong, with leading manufacturers benefiting from high-quality customer structures and stable growth with high dividends [2] - The sportswear sector faced increased pressure in Q3, but the long-term outlook for the sportswear industry remains positive [2] - The textile manufacturing sector showed a slight decline in Q3 compared to Q2, but overall performance remained strong, with upstream manufacturers experiencing more significant declines [3] - The sportswear sector in Hong Kong saw increased sales pressure in Q3, with domestic apparel retail growth slowing down [3] Textile Manufacturing Sector Sector Level - Q3 textile manufacturing sector revenue growth remained strong at around 20%, with profit growth exceeding 30% [6][7][8] - Upstream manufacturers experienced a more significant decline in Q3, but raw material prices have bottomed out, potentially providing profit elasticity in the future [3][14] - Midstream manufacturers maintained strong growth due to their strong competitive advantages, with volume growth being the primary driver [15] Company Level - Weixing Group outperformed expectations in Q3, with both revenue and profit exceeding market expectations [16][20] - Huali Group and Xin'ao Group's 2024 full-year profit forecasts were revised downward due to Q3 performance [17][21] Outlook - The industry's inventory replenishment cycle is expected to end in H2 2024, with export data closely tied to terminal consumption [22] - Leading manufacturers with high-quality customer structures and stable growth with high dividends are preferred [22][28][30] Hong Kong Sportswear Sector Sector Level - Q3 domestic apparel retail growth slowed, with sportswear brands facing increased sales pressure [3][32] - The sportswear sector showed a K-shaped differentiation trend, with high-end and cost-effective brands performing better than mid-tier brands [33][35] Company Level - Most brands' Q3 sales met expectations, with discounts and inventory levels remaining healthy [37][38] - Li-Ning's offline discounts deepened in Q3, while other brands maintained or improved their discount levels [77][78] - FILA and Li-Ning's inventory-to-sales ratios increased in Q3, while Anta and Xtep maintained stable levels [79][80] Outlook - Q4 sales performance remains uncertain, with a focus on the Double 11 shopping festival [96][97] - The long-term outlook for the sportswear industry remains positive, with structural opportunities in the outdoor and multi-brand sectors [98][99] Investment Recommendations - In the brand sector, focus on Anta Sports, Li-Ning, Xtep International, and 361 Degrees for short-term recovery and long-term growth in the sportswear industry [3][101] - In the manufacturing sector, recommend Huali Group, Weixing Group, Shenzhou International, Nine West Holdings, Yuyuan Group, Xin'ao Group, and Kairui Group, with Bairun Oriental as a beneficiary [3][101]