Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5]. Core Views - The company's Q3 performance showed a decline in revenue and profit, with expectations for improved sales during the winter clothing season [3]. - The company has a strong cash position of 2.61 billion yuan as of September 2024, indicating robust financial strength [3]. - The report has adjusted the profit forecast for 2024-2026 downwards by 20%-25% due to uncertain consumer demand [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.0 billion yuan, up 7.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 760 million yuan, up 0.5% year-on-year [1]. - Q3 revenue was 1.06 billion yuan, down 4.4% year-on-year, and net profit was 280 million yuan, down 17.3% year-on-year [1]. - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 76.4% [2]. Sales Channels - Direct sales accounted for 66.0% of revenue in the first half of 2024, with year-on-year growth of 2.4% [2]. - The company opened a net of 8 new stores in the first half of 2024, bringing the total to 1,263 stores [2]. Cost and Cash Flow - The operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 650 million yuan, down 33.0% year-on-year due to increased payments for goods and expenses [2]. - Inventory increased by 25.5% to 890 million yuan as of September 2024, with inventory turnover days rising to 304 days [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report projects revenue growth rates of 6.84%, 11.39%, and 9.83% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4]. - The estimated EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is 1.61 yuan, 1.86 yuan, and 2.11 yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12, 11, and 9 [3][4].
比音勒芬:2024年三季报点评:Q3业绩表现走弱,期待冬装销售旺季表现