电力行业9月月报：省间电力现货市场转正，水火发电出力此消彼长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the electricity industry, indicating optimism about future performance [1]. Core Insights - The inter-provincial electricity spot market has officially commenced, marking a significant step towards a unified national electricity market. This development is expected to enhance resource optimization and electricity balance across provinces [9][10]. - The report anticipates that the electricity sector will experience profit improvement and value reassessment following several rounds of supply-demand tensions. The ongoing market reforms are expected to lead to a slight increase in electricity prices, benefiting coal-fired power companies [2][4]. - The inter-provincial electricity spot market has been operational for over 31 months, facilitating significant trading volumes and demonstrating its effectiveness in resource allocation [10][11]. Monthly Electricity Demand Analysis - In September 2024, total electricity consumption reached 847.5 billion kWh, with a year-on-year growth of 8.52%, although the growth rate slightly decreased compared to August [13][17]. - The electricity consumption growth rates for various sectors in September 2024 were as follows: primary industry at 6.36%, secondary industry at 3.55%, tertiary industry at 12.66%, and residential consumption at 27.80% [17][20]. - The report highlights that high-energy-consuming sectors, such as manufacturing, have seen a decline in electricity consumption growth, while consumer sectors continue to show strong growth [20][23]. Monthly Electricity Supply Analysis - In September 2024, total electricity generation was 802.36 billion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.00%. Notably, coal-fired generation increased by 8.90%, while hydropower generation saw a decline of 14.60% [29][30]. - The report indicates that the average utilization hours for various power generation types have varied, with coal power averaging 3,305 hours and hydropower averaging 2,672 hours in the first nine months of 2024 [2][30]. Market Performance - The electricity and utilities sector experienced a decline of 4.2% in October, underperforming compared to the broader market, which saw a 3.2% drop in the CSI 300 index [13][14]. - Key companies in the electricity sector that are expected to benefit from the market dynamics include integrated coal and power companies, national coal power leaders, and hydropower operators [4][12].