10月PMI解读：景气回升初期特征明显

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Insights - The manufacturing PMI for October is 50.1%, up from 49.8% in the previous month, marking a return to expansion after five months[9] - New orders and import indices have not yet returned to the expansion line, indicating cautious demand[3] - The prices of major raw materials have increased, with the purchasing price index at 53.4%, up 8.3 percentage points from last month[14] Group 2: Economic Policy and Market Trends - A series of incremental policies have been implemented, contributing to the recovery of the manufacturing sector[4] - The overall economic outlook is improving, with expectations for continued growth in the fourth quarter due to strong policy support[3] - The service sector's business activity index is at 50.2%, indicating a return to expansion, driven by seasonal factors such as the National Day holiday[21] Group 3: Risks and Cautions - There are risks associated with the potential for policy easing to fall short of expectations and the possibility of tighter monetary policy[6] - The overall demand remains weak, with small enterprises experiencing a decline in business sentiment, reflected in a PMI of 47.5%[20]