卧龙电驱：低空经济高价值量环节，多领域设备的“心脏”

Investment Rating - Buy-A rating with a 6-month target price of 18.25 RMB, representing a 25x dynamic P/E ratio for 2024 [4][6][22] Core Views - Domestic large-scale equipment updates and North American manufacturing reshoring support steady growth in industrial motors [12] - Home appliance replacement policies boost demand for upstream motors, with a turning point in daily-use motor revenue [12] - Strong growth in new energy vehicle (NEV) production and sales, with the automotive motor business expected to grow significantly, with estimated contract amounts totaling 8.637 billion RMB from 2020-2031 [12] - Low-altitude economy policy inflection point reached, with aviation motors as a high-value segment expected to bring new growth [12] Industrial Motors - The company is a global leader in motor manufacturing, ranking second in high-voltage motors and third in low-voltage motors globally [13] - Industrial motors account for 61.96% of revenue, with domestic demand driven by large-scale equipment updates and overseas demand supported by US manufacturing reshoring [13][14] - Domestic equipment updates aim for a 25% increase in investment by 2027, with accelerated replacement of high-efficiency motors [14] - US manufacturing reshoring drives upstream demand, with US factory construction investment reaching 238.262 billion USD in August 2024, up 18.32% YoY [15][35] Daily-Use Motors - Home appliance replacement policies drive demand, with major appliance sales reaching 130 million units in Jan-Sep 2024, up 3.49% YoY [19] - Average prices of major appliances rebounded to 1,628.15 RMB/unit in Sep 2024, up 56.75% from the Feb low [19] - The company has long-term partnerships with leading home appliance brands, benefiting from the industry recovery [19] New Energy Vehicle (NEV) Motors - NEV sales in China reached 8.32 million units in Jan-Sep 2024, up 32.53% YoY, with exports reaching 1.6765 million units, up 33.45% YoY [20] - Motors are a core component of NEVs, accounting for 7% of vehicle value, with raw material price declines improving profitability [20] - The company has formed a joint venture with ZF, a global leader, with estimated contract amounts totaling 8.637 billion RMB from 2020-2031 [20] Low-Altitude Economy - Low-altitude economy policies have reached an inflection point, with a projected trillion RMB market by 2030 [21] - Electric propulsion is a key technology for low-altitude aircraft, with the company having developed products across small, medium, and large categories [21] - The company has partnered with COMAC and other leading firms, establishing a competitive advantage in aviation motor systems [21] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 18.012 billion RMB, up 15.71% YoY, with net profit of 1.102 billion RMB, up 107.96% YoY [13] - Revenue for 2024-2026 is forecasted at 16.8, 18.71, and 20.94 billion RMB, with net profit of 0.96, 1.13, and 1.38 billion RMB, respectively [22] - Industrial motors contributed 9.645 billion RMB in revenue in 2023, up 10.03% YoY, with a gross margin of 29.58% [96]