美国新能源汽车政策前瞻：大选前夕

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating for the US新能源汽车 industry [1][6][39] Core Views - The US新能源汽车 industry faces significant policy uncertainty ahead of the 2024 presidential election, with potential major shifts depending on whether Biden or Trump wins [1][8][35] - Biden administration has set ambitious goals including 50% EV sales by 2030, 100% clean electricity by 2035, and net-zero emissions by 2050, supported by major legislation like IRA, CHIPS Act, and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law [9][22][29][30] - Trump's potential return could reverse many Biden-era policies, with possible impacts including reduced EV subsidies, relaxed emissions standards, and renewed focus on traditional energy [35][36][37] US新能源汽车 Policy Overview - Key policies under Biden include rejoining Paris Agreement, setting 2030/2050 emissions targets, $1 trillion infrastructure law with$7.5B for EV charging, $280B CHIPS Act, and IRA with$7,500 EV tax credits [9][29][30] - California leads with ACC II regulations requiring 100% zero-emission vehicle sales by 2035, though adoption varies by state [22][23] - CAFE standards have tightened under Biden, with proposed 58 mpg target by 2032, reversing Trump-era relaxations [24][25][26][27] - Tariffs on Chinese EVs increased from 25% to 100% under Biden, with additional restrictions on Chinese auto components and technology [32][33] Potential Impacts of Trump Presidency - Likely to reduce emphasis on EV adoption, potentially rolling back Biden's 2030 50% EV target and relaxing emissions standards [35][36] - May impose higher tariffs, including 10% baseline tariff and 60% additional tariff on Chinese goods, while renegotiating USMCA to prevent tariff circumvention [2][37] - Could adopt more open stance towards Chinese automakers setting up US production, contrasting with Biden's FEOC restrictions [3][37] Market Context - US新能源汽车 market shows resilience but faces policy discontinuity and election uncertainty [8] - China's EV exports to US remain minimal at 1.4-1.7% of total exports, limiting impact of US tariffs [34] - Domestic substitution and technological innovation are key trends in China's response to US restrictions [34]