HTSC·2024-11-01 08:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for BYD (002594 CH) with a target price of RMB 424.94, up from a previous target of RMB 326.44 [2][6]. Core Insights - BYD's Q3 2024 revenue reached RMB 201.13 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 24.04% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.16%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 11.61 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 11.47% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 28.08% [4][5]. - The gross margin and net margin for Q3 2024 were 21.89% and 6.03%, respectively, showing significant improvements due to scale effects and supply chain advantages [4]. - The report highlights the successful launch of the DM5.0 model, which has contributed to an increase in average selling price (ASP) and per-vehicle profitability [5]. Financial Performance - BYD's cumulative sales of new energy vehicles reached 2.748 million units in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 32.2%. The market share in the domestic new energy passenger vehicle segment rose to 34.6% [5]. - The ASP for Q3 2024 was approximately RMB 135,000, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of nearly RMB 3,000, while the per-vehicle profit was estimated at RMB 9,000 to RMB 9,500, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of RMB 700 to RMB 800 [5][6]. Valuation and Forecast - The report forecasts net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be RMB 37.09 billion, RMB 47.22 billion, and RMB 58.30 billion, respectively [6][7]. - The valuation methodology includes a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 1.05 for the automotive business and a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 22.25 for the electronics business, leading to a total market capitalization estimate of RMB 1,236.25 billion [6][11].