CTG DUTY-FREE(SH:601888) Minsheng Securities·2024-11-01 10:33Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [2][4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 43.021 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 15.38%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.919 billion yuan, down 24.72% year-on-year [2]. - The third quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 11.756 billion yuan, a decline of 21.52% year-on-year, with a net profit of 636 million yuan, down 52.53% year-on-year, primarily due to weak consumer spending and adverse weather conditions [2]. - The company's gross margin slightly decreased, with a gross margin of 33.12% for the first three quarters of 2024, up 1.37 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 9.11%, down 1.92 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The report highlights that the duty-free sales in Hainan are under pressure, with a 37% year-on-year decline in sales to 5.549 billion yuan in Q3 2024, while the port duty-free sales have shown significant growth due to policy improvements and increased international flights [2]. - The investment suggestion indicates that new rental agreements are expected to reduce airport rental costs, and the recovery of inbound passenger flow is likely to boost port duty-free revenue, contributing to performance elasticity [2]. Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 5.546 billion yuan, 6.608 billion yuan, and 7.776 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 25x, 21x, and 18x based on the closing price on October 31 [2][3][5]. - The report provides a detailed financial summary, indicating total revenue forecasts of 60.786 billion yuan for 2024, 69.904 billion yuan for 2025, and 80.390 billion yuan for 2026 [5][6].